By the end of 2025, European shippers and logistics providers are preparing for a rate environment unlike anything seen in the past decade. What once felt stable – typical seasonal cycles, predictable fuel adjustments, and year-on-year contract increases – is now shifting into structural volatility. As RoadFreightCompany observes, the issue is no longer isolated to specific corridors; it is affecting the entire continental network.
Several forces are pushing Europe into this unpredictable pricing phase. First, the capacity landscape is no longer stable. Even after a partial recovery in 2025, the continent still faces uneven driver availability, fluctuating truck supply, and varying productivity levels across Germany, France, Italy, and CEE markets. Transport companies cannot guarantee fixed yearly capacity without significant buffer pricing, which directly impacts long-term contracts.
Fuel prices have also become harder to forecast due to global energy fragmentation. Traditional correlations between Brent, diesel, and transport surcharges are breaking down. Many carriers now reprice surcharges weekly, not monthly, creating additional uncertainty for shippers who used to rely on quarterly stabilization.
A third driver is macroeconomic inconsistency. Some EU industries – automotive, chemicals, and machinery – are slowing, while pharmaceuticals, e-commerce, and food logistics remain strong. This imbalance means freight demand surges in certain pockets while collapsing in others, forcing carriers to reposition equipment and staff without guaranteed returns.
Digitalization, paradoxically, is contributing to volatility instead of reducing it. While predictive TMS platforms have improved forecasting, they also expose inefficiencies that were previously absorbed quietly by carriers. Now, data transparency reveals the true cost of empty kilometers, delays, and inconsistent loading times – and carriers are increasingly unwilling to absorb these losses. RoadFreightCompany sees this trend clearly on cross-border FTL lanes, where real-time data often contradicts contractual assumptions from even a few months earlier.
For shippers, the traditional tools for rate planning – historical data, seasonal benchmarks, multi-year tenders – are losing reliability. The new environment requires more dynamic approaches, including flexible contracts, quarterly renegotiation windows, and shared risk models. Companies that still rely solely on fixed annual tenders will likely face shortfalls in capacity or unexpected surcharges.
There is also a growing convergence between freight pricing and risk pricing. Delays at borders, inconsistent rail schedules, warehouse congestion, and regulatory changes increasingly translate into direct cost impact. Shippers who fail to integrate risk adjustment into their budgeting processes will enter 2026 with unrealistic cost expectations.
A practical example of this shift emerged during Q3 2025, when several high-volume importers from Italy and Spain faced sudden rate increases after regional driver shortages and rising tolls disrupted primary corridors. Companies with flexible planning models were able to shift volumes across Benelux and Germany and keep costs under control. Those with rigid structures paid premium rates or experienced service cuts. RoadFreightCompany supported several clients in adjusting to these fluctuations by redesigning routing logic and renegotiating capacity blocks with carriers that had more stable fleet utilization.
Looking ahead, 2026 will likely be shaped by three pricing realities:
– Rates will fluctuate more frequently, driven by corridor-specific conditions rather than EU-wide trends.
– Surcharges will diversify, with more carriers introducing congestion fees, “guaranteed loading slot” add-ons, and flexibility premiums.
– Forward planning will matter more than spot buying, as spot markets may remain unpredictable for another cycle.
For the companies that respond proactively, price volatility becomes manageable; for the companies that wait for stability to “return,” the next year may bring unpleasant surprises. RoadFreight Company believes that adaptability – not prediction – will be the defining competence of 2026 logistics planning. Companies that incorporate scenario modeling, real-time visibility, and flexible contracting into their strategies will maintain both cost control and operational continuity in a changing market.